Note: submitted by
The particularly important details and music artist names are in bold text
. Licensed music track names are in italics
The year is 1973, five years after the events of the Mafia III, and 22 years since Vito Scaletta’s seen or heard from his old friend Joe Barbaro. The canon ending of Mafia III with this Mafia IV story is Vito taking over the city after Lincoln skipped town, however Cassandra and Burke are left alive and loyal to both Vito and Lincoln still. Burke was able to survive his liver cancer by getting a black market liver transplant in Mexico, like he did in his ending, except with Vito running the city. On Vito and Lincoln’s behalf, Burke and Cassandra agree to stay behind in New Bordeaux and keep the city locked down, incase Leo Galante and the Commission try anything.
The beginning cutscene is Vito answering his telephone after getting up in the morning in his new penthouse, on the top floor of the New Bordeaux casino he finished that was once Sal Marcano's, and grabbing a cup of coffee. It's Alma with some urgent news. Lincoln Clay came down to the cigar warehouse to visit her after 5 years of silence, and he has big news.
Joe is alive in Empire Bay and has been this entire time. However, as punishment for his actions, he's become Leo Galante's personal driver against his will and is forbidden from contacting Vito ever again, or else him and Vito will be killed. Alma then tells Vito to meet Lincoln at the airport to learn more, as he's already there awaiting Vito's arrival. When they're away from anyone who could listen in on their conversation, Lincoln tells Vito he has a friend named John Donovan he's going to introduce him to, hiding in the outskirts of Empire Bay, ready to help Vito and Lincoln with their new mission
Vito gets dressed in one of his signature trench coats with a suit and tie, ready to rain down hell on the Vinci crime family and their allies, and finally be reunited with his lifelong friend he previously thought was dead, Joe Barbaro.
Here is my idea for the kill list, all related to the Commission in Empire Bay and their allies.
- Leo Galante - Top target on the list, Vinci family consigliere who's in with the Commission and the man you thought put Joe in the ground for the past 22 years. Bury this wrinkly old cocksucker.
- Johnny Galante - Vinci family capo and younger relative of Leo's mentioned in Cassandra's ending, possibly Leo's cousin even. John Donovan knows that the two are close, and that Johnny's a valuable asset to Leo's organization. Kill him both to hurt Leo's earn and influence, and to hit him straight in the heart by taking away his family and everyone he loves
- Michele Galante Jr. - Another Vinci family capo, and Leo Galante’s youngest brother. Killing Leo’s little brother will both take away one of his most reliable allies, and leave him stricken with grief and enraged, and more prone to making mistakes.
- Nunzio Galante - Leo’s seasoned older brother by 3 years, and yet another Vinci family capo. He knows enough about smuggling that he worked out an ingenious plan for smuggling military grade weapons into the city. He pays off corrupt officials at Empire Bay International Airport, to allow guns to be loaded inside the walls and floors of planes, unknown to everyone onboard save for the palms the Galantes and Frank Vinci have greased to cooperate and keep quiet. The time has come to put this crafty old bastard in the ground.
- Don Frank Vinci - Frank Vinci is the boss of the Vinci crime family, the family Leo's been a consigliere of for decades, and a lifelong friend of his. Kill Frank, and Leo loses more ground than he could ever imagine, and will be forced to deal with both the loss of his boss, and the loss of his lifelong childhood friend.
- Don Ennio Salieri - Longtime close friend of both Frank Vinci and Leo Galante, Don of the Salieri crime family, and a third party Frank and Leo call in to crush Vito's uprising, when it becomes too big of an issue for Vinci alone to handle. Salieri was eventually able to grease enough palms while behind bars to have his life sentence overturned, and he got released from prison on good behavior in 1953, after he served 15 years of his sentence. He’s since relocated to his main operations to Empire Bay, having already had connections and men present there while he was in prison, backed by the Commission and the Vinci crime family. He's seasoned, but he’s nothing Mr. Scaletta can't handle. Give this tired old fuck the gangland ending he's had coming.
- Isaac - Isaac is the personal assistant to an influential loan shark named Bruno Levine, who handles the money of the Commission, including the Vinci crime family and the Salieri crime family. He does anything from serve his boss coffee, to count incoming and outgoing money for Bruno. Because of his duties, he's aware of Bruno's location at all times. You’ll need to get to Isaac to get information on his boss out of him, and dispose of him afterwards if you want to get to Bruno.
- Bruno Levine - Bruno is a Jewish-American loan shark who kicks up all of his earn to both Frank Vinci and Ennio Salieri, and the Commission in Empire Bay. Killing him kills a lot of earn for the Commission, and they loses a valuable asset. In addition to getting rid of him being practical, to add insult to injury, he gave your father that loan. It's about time to put this asshole out of business.
- Mr. Chu & Mr. Chu Jr. - This old man has been leading the Empire Bay Triads with an iron fist since before you were even born. The bastard has a son too, who eventually went on to become his underboss. The Empire Bay Triads became a close ally of the Vinci crime family, the Salieri crime family, and the Commission shortly after Vito killed Don Carlo Falcone in 1951, forming a lucrative partnership with the Commission. Mr. Chu and his eldest son are valuable assets for Leo Galante who give him extra reach. Melt their iron fists and show these two pricks just who they fucked with.
- Eddie Scarpa - This cocksucker used to be Carlo Falcone's underboss for as long as you could remember. After you whacked Falcone in the fall of 1951, he decided to throw in with Vinci to save his own skin. He took over the smuggling and dock union extortion that fat fuck Derek Pappalardo used to run. You know all too well how to deal with this sorry fuckin' rat.
I'm thinking Vito and Joe work with Lincoln Clay and John Donovan to split up Empire Bay and distribute territory to three other factions not unlike what Lincoln did with New Bordeaux. This time though, this is a much larger city in a much, much different part of the United States. The empire building mechanics would be a lot smoother, more robust, and streamlined compared to Mafia III. They would work similarly a more modernized version of how the game Scarface: The World Is Yours
handled it's empire building and management mechanics, minus the whole switching to other characters lower on the ladder to do your bidding. This would be ideal for a story rich organized crime game in my opinion. Here are my ideas for those factions, all close allies of the up and coming Scaletta crime family. The Cuban mob led by Alma Diaz.
Vito goes way back with Alma, and she does not hesitate to answer him and Lincoln's calls to save Joe's life and royally fuck both Leo Galante and the Vinci family. Conti crime family, led by Enzo Conti.
This Conti crime family formed sometime in late 1968, months after Lincoln helped Enzo flee New Bordeaux and drop off of Sal Marcano's radar. It turns out he fled north to Empire Bay and finally formed his own family, having more than enough years of experience in the underworld to handle the job. Lincoln's tight with him and manages to recruit him to Vito and Joe's cause. The Yakuza, based out of Empire Bay's Japantown.
Longtime sworn enemies of the Empire Bay Triads, with bad blood going back decades. They would greatly enjoy seeing Mr. Chu and his son's heads mounted on pikes, along with whacking everyone who's ever supported their organization. You don't know them well, and they're known to be very unpredictable and ruthless. Use these traits to your advantage when taking on the Commission of Empire Bay and their friends. I should mention as expected, this entire 1973 section where you play as Vito is much shorter than Mafia III. Vito's takeover is shown much more quickly over time than Lincoln's, and there's time skips during it, to keep it short and sweet, and to show onscreen only what's important. There is also no option for your underbosses to betray you, as to reduce confusion and keep the story consistently the same each playthrough, like the first two Mafia games. However, unlike Mafia III, after all of these tasks are completed and every single assassination target on Vito’s kill list is dealt with, the game does not end. In fact, it's not even anywhere near close to being over yet. Vito's 1973 section was merely the beginning act. It was really a lead up to an entirely new Mafia story, centering around a newcomer to the American mob.
Fast forward two years following Vito’s rampage that led to him taking over Empire Bay and the Commission, in the year 1975 him and Joe now rule Empire Bay, with Vito as the Don of the Scaletta Crime Family, and Joe working as his loyal underboss. You play the rest of the game as a young up and coming soldato named Louis in his 20’s, who’s a rising star in Vito’s organization. Do right by Mr. Scaletta and Mr. Barbaro, understand kid?
My basic idea for the character and his backstory is that he's a young Italian-Canadian mobster from Toronto, Ontario, or whatever Mafia's equivalent of it could be called. Let's call him Louis DeAngelo
. (No relation to Tommy Angelo)
His family hails from Tuscany in Italy and moved to Toronto, Ontario in 1939, shortly after World War II broke out in Europe. Louis DeAngelo was born in July 1952 in Toronto, and was raised in Toronto's Little Italy. Louis fled south to Empire Bay when the feds started cracking down on his old family and put his boss in prison, and he ended up finding a new home with the Scaletta crime family. The first few missions playing as Louis DeAngelo involve shooting your away out of an arrest by a Toronto Police Service SWAT team in Toronto in December 1974, seeing the rest of the members of your old crime family either get arrested or shot in front of you as you make your escape. You spend the next two missions fleeing Ontario through Quebec and upstate New York, before finally arriving in Empire Bay in early 1975, late January to be exact. Winter is in full force with snow everywhere, Louis' arrival to Empire Bay for the first time in his life mirroring Vito's return to Empire Bay in 1945 30 years earlier, except under far different much more dire circumstances. Louis' older brother and his father, both capos in his old crime family in Toronto, are shown to be arrested by the TPS SWAT team in his first mission, the same one that attempted to gun him down when he resisted arrested. Louis knows someone had to have ratted out his old crime family, and he wants to find out who someday. The thing is though, he doesn't just want to kill them. He wants to get out of them why they did it before he kills them. More than anything else, he just wants to find out why his crime family was betrayed and served up to the feds on a silver platter, having most of his biological family sent to prison in the process. He’s out to uncover the mystery of why his family fell apart, and he’s more than willing to help people like Don Vito Scaletta and his underboss Joe Barbaro to eventually get the answers he seeks. I came up with the idea for this character because I figured that playing as a fugitive from the law made sense for the mob life, and I'm surprised we haven't had a fugitive protagonist in the Mafia series yet.
In the 1975 chapters while playing as Louis, the Watergate scandal, President Richard Nixon’s resignation, and the official end to the Vietnam War are both discussed on the in-game radio during news segments. In the last 1979 chapter, the beginning of the Soviet-Afghan War is also the subject of a news segment on the radio.
The story eventually transitions into the 1980's as years pass, with the scenery, cars, and music changing accordingly, and historical events of the time discussed in the game. By the time the game ends, it's 1992, and significant historical events from the past few years at the time that are covered on the radio in-game include anything from the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Gulf War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, to the 1992 L.A. riots. The rise of the internet and home computers are briefly touched upon during news segments on the in-game radio during the early 1990's section of the story, but not greatly delved into given their relative infancy in that time period. During this entire 1975-1992 stretch of the story, Vito is no longer playable, and Don Scaletta takes a backseat in the story as a main supporting character, similar to Don Salieri throughout Mafia: Definitive Edition. You now play as the Italian-Canadian Scaletta family soldato Louis DeAngelo, who is later promoted to being a capo in 1985.
However, unlike Don Salieri, Don Scaletta has much more integrity, and has more genuine loyalty for his men and his associates. If you've beaten Mafia 1 or Mafia: Definitive Edition, you'll know this is something Salieri lacked in the end.
The game will include a number of hit music from the 70’s that played on the radio back then, such as Bobby Womack
’s Across 110th Street
and Tony Christie
’s (Is This the Way to) Amarillo
, The Grateful Dead
's Casey Jones
and at least a few songs by the then new American rock band Cheap Trick
, as well as popular songs from the 1960’s people still listened to at the time, such as Sam the Sham and the Pharaohs
’ Wooly Bully
, King Crimson
’s 21st Century Schizoid Man, Zager and Evans
' In the Year 2525
, The Zombies
' Time of the Season
, and Nancy Sinatra
’s These Boots Are Made for Walkin'
. When you progress through the game, especially after you switch to playing as Louis DeAngelo for the rest of the story, years change, and the music changes. Different songs start playing on the radio, such as Sylvester
's You Make Me Feel (Mighty Real), Randy Crawford
's Street Life
, and The Village People
, Cheryl Lynn
's Got to Be Real
, Gloria Gaynor
's I Will Survive
, and the Bee Gees
' Stayin' Alive
start playing in the 1979 portion of the game. After you've completed the 1975 section of the game, Foghat
's Slow Ride
starts playing on the radio. Starting in the 1977 section of the game, Cheap Trick
's I Want You to Want Me
start playing on the radio. In the 1980's portion of the game, Thomas Dolby
's songs Hyperactive!
and She Blinded Me with Science
, in addition to Night Ranger
's Sister Christian
also start playing on the radio. If Hangar 13 can afford the licenses, I also think a few Michael Jackson
songs should definitely be on the radio during the 1980's portion of the story, given the immense popularity and regular radio airtime those two had in that decade. If this ended up being possible, I imagine that Michael Jackson
's Smooth Criminal
, Beat It
, and Billie Jean
being on the radio in the 80's sections would be a must, Smooth Criminal especially because of how well it suits the series. Madonna
's Lucky Star
, Burning Up
, Like a Virgin
, and Borderline
would also be perfect for the 80's portion of the game to me. Also mentioned by NPCs and civilians in the game are topical events of the time period, such as the release of the groundbreaking 1973 horror film The Exorcist
at the end of Vito's playable portion of the game.
Other music of the 1980's segment when playing as Louis DeAngelo for the remainder of the game includes hits of the era such as Joe Jackson
's Steppin' Out
, The Buggles
' Video Killed The Radio Star
, Corey Hart
's Sunglasses at Night, Laura Branigan
's Self Control
, The Weather Girls
' It's Raining Men
’s Take On Me
, Men at Work
's Down Under
, Kim Wilde
's Kids in America
, The Gap Band
's You Dropped a Bomb on Me
, Culture Club
’s Karma Chameleon
, Twisted Sister
's I Wanna Rock
and We're Not Gonna Take It
, Bon Jovi
's Wanted Dead or Alive
and Bad Medicine
's Working for the Weekend
, Dead or Alive
's You Spin Me Round (Like a Record)
and That's the Way (I Like It)
’s I Think We’re Alone Now
, Daryl Hall & John Oates
's Japanese Boy
, Mötley Crüe
's Dr. Feelgood
, Girls, Girls, Girls
and Kickstart My Heart
, Billy Joel
's We Didn't Start the Fire
, Huey Lewis And The News
' Hip To Be Square
, Bill Medley
's (I've Had) The Time of My Life
, The Police
's Every Breath You Take
's Magic's Wand
, Tears For Fears
' Everybody Wants To Rule The World
's Somebody's Watching Me
's Baby Love
's 99 Red Balloons
, Earth, Wind, and Fire
's Let's Groove
, Billy Idol
's Eyes Without a Face
and White Wedding
, Rick James
’ Give It To Me Baby
's Everything She Wants
, George Michael
's Careless Whisper
's Hold the Line
's Heart of Glass
, and Mai Tai
. Note that not every single year and moment of the 17 year 1975-1992 section playing as Louis DeAngelo is playable or chronicled. My idea is it would be handled similarly to how the time skips in Mafia 1/Mafia: Definitive Edition were handled. Time skips of two or more years, or in this case, even longer such as 4 years sometimes, the game skipping from 1979 to 1983. This is to keep the game and story length ideal, and not risk it getting boring or repetitive, or going on for too long. Repetition was a big problem in Mafia III even if I still thought it was a superb game, so I think it'd be best to learn from that for the next big entry. The games story will skip ahead and show onscreen only what's significant, similar to the first Mafia game and it's remake, as well as certain aspects of Mafia II. Louis starts his section as a 22 year old fugitive soldato who got picked up by another crew south of the Canadian border, and in the epilogue of the game in 1992, is promoted to the consigliere of the Scaletta crime family at the age of 40, being set to take over the family once Vito and Joe become too old to run the day to day on a regular basis. The years chronicled in the main gameplay segments are as follows: 1973 1975 1977 1979 1983 1985 1986 1987 1989 1990 1991 1992
Much more of the rural areas and countryside outside of Empire Bay are included than what was available in Mafia II. The way rural environments are handled for this hypothetical Mafia IV is akin to how Mafia: Definitive Edition and Mafia III handled their rural environments outside the main cities, except much larger in scale, given the increased power of the current new consoles such as the PS5 and Xbox Series X. This region is based off of upstate New York and the surrounding areas across multiple states in the Northeastern US, and includes forests, fields, mountains, rivers, lakes, beaches, and small towns. Also included are other cities and towns, based off of other large cities in New York like Syracuse, Buffalo, and Rochester, where other story missions, business activities, and side missions take place, along with smaller notable places like Ithaca, Binghamton, and Utica. The entire states of New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Delaware, Maryland, and Ohio are also included, including places based off of all of their major cities and most of their notable towns in between. Large portions of Pennsylvania are included as well, including Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Scranton. Large portions of the eastern half of the Canadian province of Ontario are included as well, including cities based off of Toronto, Ottawa, and Niagara Falls. There's even a small portion of Quebec included, including Montreal and the surrounding countryside of the province outside that city, including a few small towns in southern Quebec. The player must pass a quick border patrol check when crossing the US-Canada border in a car or other ground vehicle.
Wildlife is present in the game, mostly to add to the background, scenery, and immersion in rural environments on the map. These are all animals native to the Northeastern US, ranging from white tailed deer, coyotes, bobcats, Canada lynxes, rabbits, hares, groundhogs, gophers, beavers, raccoons, opossums, bats, chipmunks, red and gray squirrels, mice, and rats to more formidable and potentially dangerous animals that may sometimes attack the player, such as grey wolves, black bears, mountain lions, and moose. These last four animals are known to spawn in the mountainous regions, especially in New York, Ohio, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Ontario, including the rural regions based off of the Catskills and the Adirondack mountains. Dogs are present in the cities, towns, and settlements where humans live and keep them as pets, being walked and sometimes found in people's yards. Some are used as guard dogs by enemies and are aggressive towards the player on sight. Domestic cats are also present in the background of residential areas, and both Louis and Vito own them as pets throughout the game in their safe houses, as well as other onscreen characters we see the homes of throughout the game.
Aircraft make their first usable appearance in the Mafia series too, from airplanes to helicopters. Vito cannot use planes or helicopters in his playable 1973 portion of the game, as he does not know how to pilot, being a paratrooper in World War II who never actually flew any of the planes himself.
Aircraft are unlocked to use when Louis DeAngelo gets his pilot’s certificate offscreen in 1977, and at the end of a chapter set that year, Louis has to fly Vito in a helicopter to a penthouse in Downtown Empire Bay acting as a family safe house, equipped with a helipad. Louis frequently serves as a personal driver and pilot for both Vito and Joe afterwards, having done a lot in his time serving the family to earn their trust and respect.
Melee weapons also make a return from Mafia: Definitive Edition, with even more variety this time. In their respective sections of the game, Vito and Louis may use anything from baseball bats, pipes, shovels, brass knuckles, golf clubs, police batons, switchblades, kitchen knives, bowie knives, ice picks, 2x4s, claw hammers, crowbars, tire irons, chain links, machetes, meat cleavers, pickaxes, hatchets, sledgehammers, to fire axes. This amount of melee weapons is so no matter what environment the player finds themselves in during a mission or any other game activity, there is usually a weapon of some sort nearby. If the player has obtained piano wire, you may also strangle an enemy to death with it from behind as a stealth kill, this being a classic assassination method infamous for being used by the Italian Mafia. Rope can also be found and used for similar strangulation stealth kills, appearing in the gameplay environments where piano wire can’t be found. There is a wide variety of new guns and explosives to use in this concept for Mafia IV, going with the new weapons of the time the game takes place that criminals quickly got their hands on. This includes the SPAS-12 combat shotgun, the Beretta 92 pistol, the AK-74 assault rifle, the mini uzi, the MAC-10 submachine gun, both suppressed and unsuppressed variants, the Beretta 92 pistol, the Taurus raging bull revolver, Glock handguns, the TEC-9 machine pistol, illegally modified to be full auto, the Ruger Mini-14 full auto variant, and even Vietnam war era flamethrowers, which I think is only natural given that as of Mafia III, we already have RPGs and grenade launchers. Late in the game from the 1989 section and onwards, the Benelli M3 combat shotgun becomes available. The Milkor MGL grenade launcher becomes available beginning in the 1983 portion of the game. Attached grenade launchers are also available for the AK-47, AK-74, and M16 assault rifles.
Free ride makes a return in Mafia IV, with the player having the options to change the weather, time period, and an option to play as Louis, Vito, Joe, or Lincoln. Naturally, a multitude of new free ride missions are available as well.
I previously posted a much earlier and less detailed draft of this on the old Mafia3
subreddit 3 years ago back in 2017 as an idea for a hypothetical Mafia 3 expansion where you play as Vito, but have since updated and revamped it to a possible Mafia IV plot, and fixed any plot holes I noticed and made it much more fleshed out and in depth, and focus on more than just Vito in the end. You may view my original here if you so desire, to compare. https://www.reddit.com/Mafia3/comments/6sldhp/spoiler_mafia_iii_vito_dlc_basic_plot_idea/
Feel free to give me constructive criticism on this, as I encourage this discourse and believe it is integral to growing and improving, to build upon or improve these ideas I've come up with, or say whether or not you think something like this should happen in the future. Thank you for reading!
The SPAC FEAC and mobile gaming company Skillz announced a merger agreement on Sep. 1, 2020. Merger date is slated for end of this quarter, so should be coming up soon. I expect FEAC will be 2021's DKNG
. Here's why... What do we know about FEAC?
They're the same team that brought Draftkings public
(via DEAC), which you may recognize as the single most successful post-merger company
of the last 30 SPACs. What do we know about Skillz?
From the company website
Skillz is the leading mobile games platform that connects players in fair, fun, and meaningful competition. The Skillz platform helps developers build multi-million dollar franchises by enabling social competition in their games. Leveraging its patented technology, Skillz hosts billions of casual esports tournaments for millions of mobile players worldwide, and distributes millions in prizes each month. Skillz has earned recognition as one of Fast Company’s Most Innovative Companies, CNBC’s Disruptor 50, Forbes’ Next Billion-Dollar Startups, and the #1 fastest-growing company in America on the Inc. 5000.
Basically, they host approx. 30 games on their mobile platform, users pay ~$0.60 to enter and winners collect prize money. Revenue for Skillz comes in the form of a "take rate" (i.e. rake in casino terms), but basically just a percentage of the prize money. Currently their take rate is 14%, increasing to 15% in 2020, and planning on increasing to 20% by 2024. Some valuation numbers:
The merges implies a valuation for Skillz of $3.6 billion, or 6.3x projected 2022 revenue
. Total PIPE is $159 million
, representing just 4.3%
of the company valuation. Share terms: "Paradise, Chafkin, substantially all of the existing Skillz stockholders as well as Flying Eagle’s sponsor have agreed to a 24-month lock-up, subject to quarterly releases of 1.5 million shares per holder commencing 180 days following the closing". The investor presentation provides some truly mindboggling numbers, summarized here:
Ok, so the games are stupid, right?
- 80% YOY Revenue Growth
- 2020E Revenue = $225 million (confirmed in Nov.)
- 2021E Revenue = $366 million
- 2022E Revenue = $555 million
- 2020E-2022E CAGR = 57%!! Compare this to DKNG (45%), SHOP (40%), MELI (38%), SNAP (35%), ROKU (35%).
- Under expected revenue assumptions, Skillz trades at a Enterprise Value/2022E Revenue multiple of just 6.2x. Compare this to SHOP (27.9x), DKNG (12.4x), SNAP (9.5x), MELI (8.9x). Assuming the market prices in a Skillz EV/2022ER multiple comparable to DKNG, this would amount to a valuation of closer to $6.9 billion, ~2x the current valuation of $3.6 billion
- Skillz revenue growth in 2021E is expected to be 63%, almost double the expected revenue growth of 33% of comparable companies (calculated as the median).
- GROSS MARGIN: 96%! "Close competitors" are WIX (72%), PINS (68%), and ETSY (67%). Even DKNG only yields 49%.
Of course they are, they're mobile games. But you know what else is stupid? Candy Crush
and that crap averages 37 minutes of user interaction per day. What does Skillz get? 62 MINUTES
. The games are like crack. Even the Chinese superhack TikTok only gets 52 min/day, democracy-destroying Facebook gets 41 min/day
, compilation fails/ASMdiy tutorial/pseudo-porn website Youtube gets 30 min/day
. Mobile gaming accounts for ~45% of the entire gaming industry (in 2019) and is estimated to be $68 billion
, with a CAGR of 20%. Why I like FEAC/Skillz:
With interest rates at all time lows (and not expected to change until at least
2023), cash is cheap and companies can borrow basically unlimited money to fuel exponential growth (and then probably just inflate away debt). Combine this with a complete paradigm shift in international business and industry driven by the tech sector, we are in the golden age
(also probably bubble) of hypergrowth companies
. IMO, Skillz is an incredibly rare opportunity
in terms of early entry into a potentially explosive stock that is already in YOY hypergrowth. Many SPACs are incredibly speculative, dependent on highly theoretical FY2021 and FY2022 revenue growth. With Skillz, although definitely still speculative, you have the opportunity to invest in a relatively overlooked SPAC that is already in hypergrowth with EV/R multiples well below similar peers.
IMO, FEAC/Skillz is the white whale of the current SPAC crop. Skillz games have a crack-like addiction, they're in hypergrowth NOW
, have absolutely insane margins (96%
), and don't require a massive shift in an entire industry. How to play it:
This could be a little tricky. I'm not sure if there will actually be a significant pump riding up to the ticker change given retail's focus on EV/cloud/SaaS these days. Plus, mobile gaming doesn't have the same allure that sports betting does. Everyone and their mom has heard of DraftKings and Fan Duel, helped out by the Last Week Tonight segment and tons of Youtube ads. However, the growth numbers + revenue margins should be extremely enticing to fund managers, so I hope that large-block buying will increase heading towards the merger.
That being said, it might take until the merger or even early 2021 to get some traction. In any case, I don't think FEAC is a good place to just park cash in hopes of a pop. For that, probably just better to either flip other SPACs on announcement or buy into growth companies. For FEAC, I think it's best to buy in with the plan of holding until at least
the first ER, and then decide where to go from there. I'm not going to tell you "THis Is deFInitLey thE NexxT apPLE" *rocketemojirocketemoji*. However, I think that FEAC/Skillz will either have a strong multi-year run after merger, or it will flounder in the sub-$20 range in which case I'll move on. The major catalyst for determining what we can expect from the stock is what happens when the merger date is announced (supposed to be in the next few weeks). If there's a BIG pop (like, +25%), then I'll be very confident the post-merger stock will go on a tear. If reaction is more muted, then we'll have to wait until after the ticker change to see if the market prices in expected revenue growth. If any significant negative press comes out similar to NKLA, I'll trim my position by ~80% immediately. My positions:
Disclaimer: Do your own DD. Skillz numbers look amazing, but at the end of the day they're still just a mobile game company so investing in FEAC definitely has the potential to backfire. Ok, roast away.
- Units (FEAC/U) - 568; Commons (FEAC) - 2,500; MV ~ $42k. Will buy in another 1000-2000 shares if momentum begins to pick up when the merger date is announced.
- Will add some options if the price drops a bit, but they're pretty expensive right now due to recent high volatility in both FEAC price and SPACs overall. Debating getting some deep OTM Feb calls as lotto tickets.
- Will plan on trimming the position by at least ~50% if the stock price stagnates around the first ER.
noted in a comment here that he had a sketchy experience applying for a job with Skillz that required actually playing on their app before being able to submit an application. He later deleted the comment and then sent me a DM because his story was anecdotal and u/ImBloom09
didn't find the same thing. However, I still think this is a good first-hand experience story for people to know and consider prior to investing, so I'm including it here as an edit. The FEAC team is the same management that took DKNG public via DEAC, so I'm assuming (hoping) that their reputation from that deal implies they've done the appropriate vetting of Skillz prior to announcing the merger.
Edit 2: S-4/A filed right before market close the day I made this post. Merger vote set for Dec. 16
. Commons +20% on news.
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